Tennessee: 2010 election crucible
December 16, 2009

 By Jessica Taylor 

 www.politico.com

Democratic Rep. Bart Gordon's retirement announcement Monday underscored what was already becoming clear: In 2010, no state will experience more congressional election action than Tennessee.

One House incumbent from the state is expected to face a serious challenge in November. At least two incumbents, one in each party, are likely to get a serious primary challenge. Then there are three open House seats, two of which are in serious jeopardy of flipping to the Republican Party. On top of all that, Tennessee will feature an open governor's race.

All told, six of the state's nine House seats appear likely to be seriously contested - a remarkable development in a heavily gerrymandered Congress where, even amid political volatility, most incumbents will still have safe passage to reelection in 2010.

"Take a look at the country as a whole; there's not a lot of competition out there. Tennessee stands in a bit of contrast," said Vanderbilt University political science professor John Geer, who has written extensively about campaigns and elections. "I expect both parties' congressional committees will invest a lot of money in Tennessee because you can move a couple of seats one way or another, and that's not true for the bulk of the states," Geer said.

Some of the action is place-specific, determined by singular circumstances. On one side of the state, in the Memphis-based 9th District, Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen faces yet another racially tinged primary challenge that pits the two-term incumbent, who is white, against former Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton, who is African-American. At issue is lingering resentment over white representation of a mostly minority district - a fact that has left Tennessee with no African-American members of Congress.

On the other side of the state, in the heavily Republican 1st District in East Tennessee, GOP Rep. Phil Roe appears likely to face a primary rematch against David Davis, whom Roe ousted in a bitter, razor-close 2008 primary. Davis told POLITICO he is "strongly leaning" toward entering the race in 2010 to regain his old seat.

Three open House seats will be contested next year. Two of them offer the prospect of changing party control for the first time in decades. While the Chattanooga-based 3rd District vacated by GOP Rep. Zach Wamp, who is running for the open governor's seat, will likely remain Republican, Bart Gordon's Middle Tennessee-based 6th District and retiring Democratic Rep. John Tanner's West Tennessee-based 8th District are being vigorously contested by Republicans who believe that the two conservative-minded seats will flip now that the longtime incumbents are not seeking reelection.

Rep. Lincoln Davis, another Democrat representing a conservative-leaning district, seems headed for a tough reelection challenge from physician Scott DesJarlais, who has gained notice for his solid early fundraising. Spying an opportunity in the wake of the Gordon and Tanner retirements, national Republicans are already on the attack against Davis in a district that John McCain won in a landslide.

"In terms of its size relative to other states, you can make a good case that Tennessee is the epicenter of our effort to take back the House," said Andy Sere, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. "We've got three very competitive seats there, and I think Tennessee is a good demonstration of how the shifting political environment has put Democrats back on their heels."

Democrats insist it's all bluster they've heard before in Tennessee, where Republicans have touted recruits in past years only to see them fall short.

"Every election year, national Republicans beat their drums about winning congressional races in Tennessee, and year after year Tennessee voters prove them wrong by electing independent-minded Democrats like Lincoln Davis, Bart Gordon and John Tanner," said Jesse Ferguson, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman.

Davis's chief of staff, Beecher Fraser, said voters will base their choice on their own representative rather than the national party. He emphasized that Davis is active in his community and that Democrats are not treating this challenge differently than earlier ones.

"People are anti-incumbent if folks don't know who the incumbent is," Fraser said. "I think as long as people have done a great job of representing their district, they don't have anything to worry about."

Tennessee Republicans think frustration in the state over national issues such as health care and the economy will resonate next year at the voting booth.

"There's a lot of concern in Tennessee about the direction of the country, and I think that's why you're seeing a lot of people coming forward, running for Congress, running for state Legislature, running for governor," said state GOP Chairman Chris Devaney. "They see there's an arrogance involved in trying to craft policy in Washington, and it's just not the direction they want the country to go."

Former Tennessee GOP Chairman Chip Saltsman compared the mood to 1994, when Republicans captured both the state's U.S. Senate seats from Democrats and won the governor's mansion. Republican Fred Thompson won a special Senate race for the seat vacated by Al Gore, and Democratic Sen. Jim Sasser was dealt a stunning defeat by Republican Bill Frist, then a political newcomer. Gordon was also held to his lowest election percentage ever that year, winning with only 51 percent of the vote.

Tennessee Democrats dismiss GOP predictions of pickups as too optimistic but say they are aware of the national mood and the impact it could have.

"I think certainly we know historically that the off-election year provides an opportunity for the party out of power, so we're mindful of that, so that's one thing that could be driving their interest," said state Democratic Party Chairman Chip Forrester.